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Monday, April 12, 2004

China's rural labour force

This number floats across the news wires since a couple of days - apparently, there is a rural surplus of 150 million labourers in China. This is dramatic - compare this with the total population of the US - which is slighly more than 200 million, or the whole population of Western Europe, which totals about 450 million, if I am not totally wrong. But the 150 million in China that is the socalled surplus (what a crude word), is part of the 480 million total workforce. And those guys are underemployed or unemployed.

This makes continuous growth imperative - the country needs to have some trickle-down effects of its dramatic growth in the coastal regions to rural areas.

Challenges here?

How to manage immigration from rural to urban centers. Clearly, urban centers are centers of attraction for the population in impoverished areas.
The need to develop a sufficient number of emploment places in rural areas. This can be seen as a tool to slow down migration from rural to urban centers - but it won't prevent it.
Environmental devastation - as rural population grows, it might see the need to develop areas in the surrounding, that are environmentally unsustainable
Overheating of the economy - while the economy needs to grow, there is always the danger that certain segments overheat and bring the bubble down.
It is very important for China to continue to develop the ICT industry. Recent studies indicated that the population in the US migrated lesser than they did earlier - one reason seen behind this could be that there is no need to go to the workplaces anymore, but that ICT enables population to work anywhere anyting. However, it will take a long time for China to get to this stage, as only growth in income allows ICT to flourish.

It would also be good to look to India and see how this country manages the development of its rural sector.

(By Asia Business Consulting)