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Wednesday, April 13, 2005

It still is China, Stupid

In June last year, I wrote the section on "It's China, Stupid". I now have to repeat the call. It still is China, and it will continue to be China. With India following behind. Despite the fact that the country is criticised for its human rights, and how it slams down on this and on that, every now and then. And also despite the fact that there might be a bubble. Because even when something is imploding, something else is left behind and new opportunities emerge.

"now become a large exporter of commodities like steel and chemicals, with steel exports nearly quintupling in the first two months of 2005 compared with a year ago. China is importing fewer cars and less heavy machinery as they are now made in China, and companies are making plans to export more cars and machinery.

China's imports and exports are believed to have grown 15 and 35 percent respectively in the first quarter of 2005 over the same period last year, says a report released on sunday by the State Information Center. The foreign trade surplus during the period was 13.5 billion US dollar, export volume reached 156.2 billion US dollar in the first quarter this year and import volume was 142. 76 billion US dollar.

Foreign trade has actually become the real "engine power" to China's economic growth. Government statistics show that from 1978 to 2004, China's share in world trade continuously rose. Last year, China became the world's third largest country in foreign trade, with exports accounting for over 30 percent of the country's GDP. The country's trade volume totaled 1.1 trillion US dollar. Exports increased by 35.4 percent to 593.4 billion US dollars, and imports grew by 36 percent to 561.4 billion dollars."

China becomes influential and it plays its muscle already - as you can see in the recent protests against Japan's aspiration for a seat on the UN security council. I honestly don't believe that they would let the protests continue for such a long time, if they wouldn't feel that powerful. I don't believe that the new laws on Taiwan, initiated last month or so, would have gone through, without the feeling of power.

And how do countries react, when they are scared? "The New York Times quote, "China's currency policies have angered Washington, where the Senate is considering a bill to impose a 27.5 percent tariff on Chinese exports unless Beijing revalues the renminbi." Revaluation of the Renminbi might be justified or not, but the pressure on other countries because of China is real.

(By Asia Business Consulting)