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Monday, May 08, 2006

Asian mobile phone growth

It is always interesting to see how companies forecast mobile saturation in growing markets, such as Asia.

Saturation was forecasted plenty of times, to no avail, so here is another forecast, this time for 2010, by Business Monitor International.

"BMI forecasts the total number of mobile subscribers in the region to reach 1.75 billion by 2010, amounting to a penetration rate of just over 50%. Mobile growth will surge fastest over the next five years in the developing markets of India (annual average growth of 80%), Vietnam (62%), Pakistan (38.5%), China (22%) and Indonesia (19.5%).

3G growth will be relatively slow in India, Vietnam and Pakistan, however, with operators unlikely to launch commercially before 2007/08. In Asia's more advanced markets of Japan, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, mobile growth is much slower, at no more than 2%, and operators are keen to invest in 3G networks in an effort to increase falling ARPU rates."

According to BMI, mobile subscribers in 2005 in Asia Pacific totalled 820 million of which an estimated 59 million were 3G mobile subscribers.

(By Asia Business Consulting)